{"id":30,"date":"2021-06-14T01:46:18","date_gmt":"2021-06-14T05:46:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/?post_type=chapter&#038;p=30"},"modified":"2021-09-06T17:47:24","modified_gmt":"2021-09-06T21:47:24","slug":"unit-5-climate-change-models-now-and-in-the-future","status":"publish","type":"chapter","link":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/chapter\/unit-5-climate-change-models-now-and-in-the-future\/","title":{"raw":"Unit 5: Climate Change Models Now and in the Future","rendered":"Unit 5: Climate Change Models Now and in the Future"},"content":{"raw":"<h2>Introduction to Unit 5<\/h2>\r\nIn this unit we will be listening to a presentation by Richard Hebda, who served as Curator (Botany and Earth History) at the Royal British Columbia Museum \u00a0for 38 years and adjunct faculty at the University of Victoria for 33 years.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of this unit is to understand\u2026\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>The complexity of the climate in BC and how it is changing<\/li>\r\n \t<li>How the climate is influencing your work<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Ways that you can assist in adapting to the impacts of climate change<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<div class=\"textbox textbox--learning-objectives\"><header class=\"textbox__header\">\r\n<p class=\"textbox__title\">Learning Objectives<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/header>\r\n<div class=\"textbox__content\">\r\n\r\nAfter successfully completing this unit, you will be able to:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>Understand changing climate situation in BC<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Predict what will happen with ecosystem change response<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/MClUQSpfTNg\r\n<h6>Video attribution: \u201c<a class=\"ytp-title-link yt-uix-sessionlink\" tabindex=\"-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=MClUQSpfTNg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-sessionlink=\"feature=player-title\">Hebda 2020 Dynamic Ecosystems compressed<\/a>\u201d\u00a0is licensed under\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY-NC-ND 4.0<\/a>.<\/h6>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<div class=\"textbox textbox--key-takeaways\"><header class=\"textbox__header\">\r\n<p class=\"textbox__title\">Summary of Key Points<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/header>\r\n<div class=\"textbox__content\">\r\n\r\nOver the next century, plants and animals on land in BC might be in for a wild and ultimately devastating ride.\u00a0 Warming temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and extreme weather and climate events are likely to increase at a rate and magnitude not seen in more than 65 million years.\u00a0 Global surface temperatures have risen about twice as fast over land as they have over the ocean, a trend likely to continue into the next century.\u00a0 Based on current emissions trajectories, temperatures are projected to rise as much as 90 F over much of the Earth\u2019s land.\u00a0 The last time that the Earth warmed that much was around 55 million years ago, and it did so over a period of 10,000 years.\u00a0 The projected change over the next century provides a small window in which life on Earth, including humans, will need to adapt to a similar change in temperatures.\r\n\r\nThe global climatic system is a series of connections between the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the lithosphere, the biosphere and the sociosphere \u2013 us humans.\u00a0 This global climatic system has been disrupted through huge impacts by humans, and is no longer in equilibrium.\u00a0 This dis-equilibrium is now causing the extreme weather and climate events that are the subject of evening news stories around the globe.\u00a0 For example, in the past 6 months in British Columbia, we have experienced the driest November on record, the wettest January on record, the fifth driest March on record and the driest April on record.\u00a0 Ecosystems and the species that compose them are now subjected to dramatic swings away from \u2018normal\u2019 climatic conditions and are in the process of adaptation.\u00a0 The changing climatic conditions will favour some plant and animal species and discourage others; some plant and animal species will be able to expand and occupy newly favourable habitats, while others will not have that ability, and may disappear.\r\n\r\nThe relationship between ecosystems and climate in BC is a complicated one, because BC has the highest level of ecological biodiversity in the country.\u00a0 The climate models that are being developed for the province cannot easily predict the impacts of changing climatic conditions on the wide range of biodiversity here.\u00a0 How can citizens respond to this complexity in a productive and positive way at the local level?\r\n\r\nBy gaining a basic understanding of ecological restoration principles, of ecological mitigation and of ecological adaptation, citizens can learn important tools to respond to the changing climatic conditions.\u00a0 We know that the globe is connected ecologically, and that the global climatic system affects ecosystems down to the local level.\u00a0 The rate of these changes is now unprecedented.\u00a0 However, by applying ecological principles and concepts on the ground, through direct local actions such as invasive plant removal, re-establishment of local native species, and protection and enhancement of rare plants, animals and ecosystems, the effects of climate change can be reduced.\u00a0 Citizens can learn about their local ecosystems, and adapt and restore as a learning opportunity.\u00a0 Local ecological actions can help to overcome the sense of helplessness that occurs in the face of the scale of global climatic changes.\r\n<h4>Essential Points<\/h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>Widespread climate change is already underway;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Ecosystem change is now underway;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Past climate changes will foster widespread ecosystem changes in the future;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Natural ecosystem change takes place at the species level from within, through immigration, and through local species loss;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Ecosystem change lags behind climate change and may not be gradual (could be sudden);<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Amplitude and rate of ecosystem change have few recent precedents;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Ecosystem instability is likely to occur for many decades\/centuries;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>General features of future ecosystems can be projected but composition and structure and trajectory of change is difficult to foresee;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>\u00a0Restoration from preservation\u00a0to active manipulation provides adaptive strategies but cannot stop widespread ecosystem change;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Support assisted migration of species now, without delaying because of moral uncertainty.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n&nbsp;","rendered":"<h2>Introduction to Unit 5<\/h2>\n<p>In this unit we will be listening to a presentation by Richard Hebda, who served as Curator (Botany and Earth History) at the Royal British Columbia Museum \u00a0for 38 years and adjunct faculty at the University of Victoria for 33 years.<\/p>\n<p>The purpose of this unit is to understand\u2026<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The complexity of the climate in BC and how it is changing<\/li>\n<li>How the climate is influencing your work<\/li>\n<li>Ways that you can assist in adapting to the impacts of climate change<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"textbox textbox--learning-objectives\">\n<header class=\"textbox__header\">\n<p class=\"textbox__title\">Learning Objectives<\/p>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"textbox__content\">\n<p>After successfully completing this unit, you will be able to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Understand changing climate situation in BC<\/li>\n<li>Predict what will happen with ecosystem change response<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"oembed-1\" title=\"Hebda 2020 Dynamic Ecosystems compressed\" width=\"500\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MClUQSpfTNg?feature=oembed&#38;rel=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h6>Video attribution: \u201c<a class=\"ytp-title-link yt-uix-sessionlink\" tabindex=\"-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=MClUQSpfTNg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-sessionlink=\"feature=player-title\">Hebda 2020 Dynamic Ecosystems compressed<\/a>\u201d\u00a0is licensed under\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY-NC-ND 4.0<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"textbox textbox--key-takeaways\">\n<header class=\"textbox__header\">\n<p class=\"textbox__title\">Summary of Key Points<\/p>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"textbox__content\">\n<p>Over the next century, plants and animals on land in BC might be in for a wild and ultimately devastating ride.\u00a0 Warming temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and extreme weather and climate events are likely to increase at a rate and magnitude not seen in more than 65 million years.\u00a0 Global surface temperatures have risen about twice as fast over land as they have over the ocean, a trend likely to continue into the next century.\u00a0 Based on current emissions trajectories, temperatures are projected to rise as much as 90 F over much of the Earth\u2019s land.\u00a0 The last time that the Earth warmed that much was around 55 million years ago, and it did so over a period of 10,000 years.\u00a0 The projected change over the next century provides a small window in which life on Earth, including humans, will need to adapt to a similar change in temperatures.<\/p>\n<p>The global climatic system is a series of connections between the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the lithosphere, the biosphere and the sociosphere \u2013 us humans.\u00a0 This global climatic system has been disrupted through huge impacts by humans, and is no longer in equilibrium.\u00a0 This dis-equilibrium is now causing the extreme weather and climate events that are the subject of evening news stories around the globe.\u00a0 For example, in the past 6 months in British Columbia, we have experienced the driest November on record, the wettest January on record, the fifth driest March on record and the driest April on record.\u00a0 Ecosystems and the species that compose them are now subjected to dramatic swings away from \u2018normal\u2019 climatic conditions and are in the process of adaptation.\u00a0 The changing climatic conditions will favour some plant and animal species and discourage others; some plant and animal species will be able to expand and occupy newly favourable habitats, while others will not have that ability, and may disappear.<\/p>\n<p>The relationship between ecosystems and climate in BC is a complicated one, because BC has the highest level of ecological biodiversity in the country.\u00a0 The climate models that are being developed for the province cannot easily predict the impacts of changing climatic conditions on the wide range of biodiversity here.\u00a0 How can citizens respond to this complexity in a productive and positive way at the local level?<\/p>\n<p>By gaining a basic understanding of ecological restoration principles, of ecological mitigation and of ecological adaptation, citizens can learn important tools to respond to the changing climatic conditions.\u00a0 We know that the globe is connected ecologically, and that the global climatic system affects ecosystems down to the local level.\u00a0 The rate of these changes is now unprecedented.\u00a0 However, by applying ecological principles and concepts on the ground, through direct local actions such as invasive plant removal, re-establishment of local native species, and protection and enhancement of rare plants, animals and ecosystems, the effects of climate change can be reduced.\u00a0 Citizens can learn about their local ecosystems, and adapt and restore as a learning opportunity.\u00a0 Local ecological actions can help to overcome the sense of helplessness that occurs in the face of the scale of global climatic changes.<\/p>\n<h4>Essential Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Widespread climate change is already underway;<\/li>\n<li>Ecosystem change is now underway;<\/li>\n<li>Past climate changes will foster widespread ecosystem changes in the future;<\/li>\n<li>Natural ecosystem change takes place at the species level from within, through immigration, and through local species loss;<\/li>\n<li>Ecosystem change lags behind climate change and may not be gradual (could be sudden);<\/li>\n<li>Amplitude and rate of ecosystem change have few recent precedents;<\/li>\n<li>Ecosystem instability is likely to occur for many decades\/centuries;<\/li>\n<li>General features of future ecosystems can be projected but composition and structure and trajectory of change is difficult to foresee;<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0Restoration from preservation\u00a0to active manipulation provides adaptive strategies but cannot stop widespread ecosystem change;<\/li>\n<li>Support assisted migration of species now, without delaying because of moral uncertainty.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":120,"menu_order":5,"template":"","meta":{"pb_show_title":"on","pb_short_title":"","pb_subtitle":"","pb_authors":[],"pb_section_license":""},"chapter-type":[48],"contributor":[],"license":[],"class_list":["post-30","chapter","type-chapter","status-publish","hentry","chapter-type-numberless"],"part":3,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/30","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/chapter"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/120"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/30\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/30\/revisions\/86"}],"part":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/parts\/3"}],"metadata":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/30\/metadata\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"chapter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapter-type?post=30"},{"taxonomy":"contributor","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributor?post=30"},{"taxonomy":"license","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/ecosystemsfuture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/license?post=30"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}