{"id":555,"date":"2023-10-14T17:30:41","date_gmt":"2023-10-14T21:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/?post_type=chapter&#038;p=555"},"modified":"2024-05-23T13:04:51","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T17:04:51","slug":"ecospace-workflow","status":"publish","type":"chapter","link":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/chapter\/ecospace-workflow\/","title":{"raw":"Ecospace Workflow","rendered":"Ecospace Workflow"},"content":{"raw":"There are numerous ways to develop an Ecospace model, all of which have in common that the first step should always be to ensure that a spatially-explicit ecosystem models is actually required to evaluate the research questions at hand. With that being the case, the same three-step process to get started is\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li>develop and balance an Ecopath model;<\/li>\r\n \t<li>calibrate the balanced model in Ecosim; and<\/li>\r\n \t<li>define the spatial model domain in Ecospace.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\nThe core of the Ecospace workflow begins with a balanced Ecopath model. Thus, once the research questions have been clearly defined, the first step is to develop (or adopt) an Ecopath model. See Heymans et al. [footnote]Heymans, J.J., Coll, M., Link, J.S., Mackinson, S., Steenbeek, J., Walters, C., Christensen, V., 2016. Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management. Ecological Modelling, Ecopath 30 years \u2013 Modelling ecosystem dynamics: beyond boundaries with EwE 331, 173\u2013184. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007<\/a>[\/footnote] for the best practices in developing a balanced Ecopath model and Ainsworth and Walters [footnote]Ainsworth, C.H., Walters, C.J., 2015. Ten common mistakes made in Ecopath with Ecosim modelling. Ecological Modelling 308: 14\u201317. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.03.019\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.03.019<\/a>[\/footnote] for the most common mistakes to avoid when using EwE. After the Ecopath model is balanced, the best practice is to use the Ecosim temporal simulations and its calibration capabilities as the 'go-to' calibration method prior to building an Ecospace model. This approach allows one to assess the capabilities of the model to represent past dynamics under past forcing conditions (hind-cast calibration) and assess the impact of the strength of the prey-predator interactions (or vulnerability parameters) prior to expanding to the more complex Ecospace module. This also helps provide an understanding for the main temporal drivers of the system and their impacts. The current and primary benefit of using Ecosim to calibrate the model is that calibration has yet to be included in Ecospace. There are more informal ways to 'visually' calibrate the spatial model (see <a href=\"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/chapter\/spatial-model-skill-assessment\/\">Spatial Model Skill Assessment<\/a>), but there has yet to be a tool developed within the software to systematically calibrate an Ecospace model [footnote]Steenbeek, J., Buszowski, J., Chagaris, D., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Fulton, E.A., Katsanevakis, S., Lewis, K.A., Mazaris, A.D., Macias, D., de Mutsert, K., Oldford, G., Pennino, M.G., Piroddi, C., Romagnoni, G., Serpetti, N., Shin, Y.-J., Spence, M.A., Stelzenm\u00fcller, V., 2021. Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better \u2013 A perspective. Environmental Modelling &amp; Software 145, 105209. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2021.105209\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2021.105209<\/a>[\/footnote].\r\n\r\nMany recent examples show the implementation of the Ecosim module of EwE for calibration of time-dynamic models (e.g., [footnote]Adebola, T., De Mutsert, K., 2019. Spatial simulation of redistribution of fishing effort in Nigerian coastal waters using Ecospace. Ecosphere 10, e02623. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ecs2.2623\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ecs2.2623<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Bentley, J.W., Serpetti, N., Fox, C.J., Heymans, J.J., Reid, D.G., 2020. Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea. Fisheries Oceanography 29, 415\u2013435. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/fog.12486\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/fog.12486<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Christensen, V., 2013. Ecological Networks in Fisheries: Predicting the Future? Fisheries 38, 76\u201381. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/03632415.2013.757987\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/03632415.2013.757987<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Corrales, X., Coll, M., Ofir, E., Piroddi, C., Goren, M., Edelist, D., Heymans, J.J., Steenbeek, J., Christensen, V., Gal, G., 2017. Hindcasting the dynamics of an Eastern Mediterranean marine ecosystem under the impacts of multiple stressors. Marine Ecology Progress Series 580, 17\u201336. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3354\/meps12271\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3354\/meps12271<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]De Mutsert, K., Lewis, K.A., White, E.D., Buszowski, J., 2021. End-to-End Modeling Reveals Species-Specific Effects of Large-Scale Coastal Restoration on Living Resources Facing Climate Change. Front. Mar. Sci. 8. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2021.624532\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2021.624532<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Hernvann, P.-Y., Gascuel, D., Gr\u00fcss, A., Druon, J.-N., Kopp, D., Perez, I., Piroddi, C., Robert, M., 2020. The Celtic Sea Through Time and Space: Ecosystem Modeling to Unravel Fishing and Climate Change Impacts on Food-Web Structure and Dynamics. Front. Mar. Sci. 7. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.578717\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.578717<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Lewis, K.A., de Mutsert, K., Steenbeek, J., Peele, H., Cowan, J.H., Buszowski, J., 2016. Employing ecosystem models and geographic information systems (GIS) to investigate the response of changing marsh edge on historical biomass of estuarine nekton in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA. Ecological Modelling 331, 129\u2013141. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.017\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.017<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Mackinson, S., Daskalov, G., Heymans, J.J., Neira, S., Arancibia, H., Zetina-Rej\u00f3n, M., Jiang, H., Cheng, H.Q., Coll, M., Arreguin-Sanchez, F., Keeble, K., Shannon, L., 2009. Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Ecological Modelling, Selected Papers from the Sixth European Conference on Ecological Modelling - ECEM \u201907, on Challenges for ecological modelling in a changing world: Global Changes, Sustainability and Ecosystem Based Management, November 27-30, 2007, Trieste, Italy 220, 2972\u20132987. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2008.10.021\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2008.10.021<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Piroddi, C., Coll, M., Liquete, C., Macias, D., Greer, K., Buszowski, J., Steenbeek, J., Danovaro, R., Christensen, V., 2017. Historical changes of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem: modelling the role and impact of primary productivity and fisheries changes over time. Sci Rep 7, 44491. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep44491\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep44491<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Serpetti, N., Baudron, A.R., Burrows, M.T., Payne, B.L., Helaou\u00ebt, P., Fernandes, P.G., Heymans, J.J., 2017. Impact of ocean warming on sustainable fisheries management informs the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. Sci Rep 7, 13438. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-017-13220-7\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-017-13220-7<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Shannon, L.J., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Lamont, T., Winker, H., Crawford, R., Jarre, A., Coll, M., 2020. Exploring Temporal Variability in the Southern Benguela Ecosystem Over the Past Four Decades Using a Time-Dynamic Ecosystem Model. Front. Mar. Sci. 7, 540. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.00540\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.00540<\/a>[\/footnote]).\r\n\r\nThe general method for calibration using the Fit to Time Series module in Ecosim and detailed methods using this tool have been well-documented [footnote]Heymans, J.J., Coll, M., Link, J.S., Mackinson, S., Steenbeek, J., Walters, C., Christensen, V., 2016. Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management. Ecological Modelling, Ecopath 30 years \u2013 Modelling ecosystem dynamics: beyond boundaries with EwE 331, 173\u2013184. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007<\/a>[\/footnote] [footnote]Scott, E., Serpetti, N., Steenbeek, J., Heymans, J.J., 2016. A Stepwise Fitting Procedure for automated fitting of Ecopath with Ecosim models. SoftwareX 5, 25\u201330. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002<\/a>[\/footnote]. However, when a traditional fit cannot be achieved due to lack of time series data, exploratory analyses to determine the uncertainty associated with changes in vulnerabilities is recommended (e.g., Rehren et al. [footnote]Rehren, J., Coll, M., Jiddawi, N., Kluger, L., Omar, O., Christensen, V., Pennino, G.M., Wolff, M., 2022. Evaluating ecosystem impacts of gear regulations in a data-limited fishery using a temporal food web model. ICES Journal of Marine Science 79:1624-1636 <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/icesjms\/fsac077\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/icesjms\/fsac077<\/a>.[\/footnote]).\r\n\r\nThe primary goal of fitting the Ecosim model to time series data is to evaluate if the model can reproduce historical patterns while refining key parameters, such as the vulnerabilities [footnote]Ahrens, R.N.M., Walters, C.J., Christensen, V., 2012. Foraging arena theory. Fish and Fisheries 13, 41\u201359. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1467-2979.2011.00432.x\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1467-2979.2011.00432.x<\/a>[\/footnote]. Ecosim simulations are especially sensitive to the \u2018vulnerability\u2019 settings, which incorporates density-dependence by representing behavioral ecology responses by prey that can limit predation impacts and access to prey food resources, and expresses how far a group is from carrying capacity [footnote]Christensen, V., Walters, C.J., 2004. Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling, Placing Fisheries in their Ecosystem Context 172, 109\u2013139. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2003.09.003\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2003.09.003<\/a>[\/footnote].\r\n\r\nFitting a model to data is a process that usually involves an iterative approach, using long-term fisheries, biological, and environmental data together with vulnerability settings to evaluate which combination of data and vulnerabilities minimizes residuals relative to observations calculated during the fitting procedure. This calibration process also allow for evaluation of model sensitivity to forcing functions and vulnerability setting, and can provide a priori information on how the user should conduct a model sensitivity analysis (usually using the built-in Monte Carlo routine plugin).\r\n\r\nThe data to incorporate into the calibration process cannot be predefined, and ultimately depends on data availability for the modelled ecosystem. A general rule of thumb is to have as long a reference period as possible to capture historical disturbance patterns and productivity shifts that may have occurred through both natural and anthropogenic fluctuations. Moreover, we can reflect data quality and error in the model fitting process. We can weigh the contributions made by different species to the goodness of fit term differently to reflect data quality. After defining what observational data to use for calibration, the sum of squared model deviations (SS) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values should be used to find the most parsimonious model configuration that captures the most variation of the historical period in consideration [footnote]Mackinson, S., 2014. Combined analyses reveal environmentally driven changes in the North Sea ecosystem and raise questions regarding what makes an ecosystem model\u2019s performance credible? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 71, 31\u201346. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1139\/cjfas-2013-0173\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1139\/cjfas-2013-0173<\/a>[\/footnote]\u00a0[footnote]Scott, E., Serpetti, N., Steenbeek, J., Heymans, J.J., 2016. A Stepwise Fitting Procedure for automated fitting of Ecopath with Ecosim models. SoftwareX 5, 25\u201330. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002<\/a>[\/footnote]. Calibration in Ecosim is not required for running Ecospace, but if done, the model is more reliable and interpretable, and more likely to lead to temporal dynamics in Ecospace for most species and functional groups, which are similar to the underlying Ecosim model.\r\n<h1 class=\"import-Normal\"><strong>Adaption<\/strong><\/h1>\r\nThe chapter is in part adapted, with permission,\u00a0 from:\r\n\r\nDe Mutsert K, Marta Coll, Jeroen Steenbeek, Cameron Ainsworth, Joe Buszowski, David Chagaris, Villy Christensen, Sheila J.J. Heymans, Kristy A. Lewis, Simone Libralato, Greig Oldford, Chiara Piroddi, Giovanni Romagnoni, Natalia Serpetti, Michael Spence, Carl Walters. 2023. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/B978-0-323-90798-9.00035-4\">Advances in spatial-temporal coastal and marine ecosystem modeling using Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace<\/a>. Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, 2nd Edition. Elsevier.","rendered":"<p>There are numerous ways to develop an Ecospace model, all of which have in common that the first step should always be to ensure that a spatially-explicit ecosystem models is actually required to evaluate the research questions at hand. With that being the case, the same three-step process to get started is<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>develop and balance an Ecopath model;<\/li>\n<li>calibrate the balanced model in Ecosim; and<\/li>\n<li>define the spatial model domain in Ecospace.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The core of the Ecospace workflow begins with a balanced Ecopath model. Thus, once the research questions have been clearly defined, the first step is to develop (or adopt) an Ecopath model. See Heymans et al. <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Heymans, J.J., Coll, M., Link, J.S., Mackinson, S., Steenbeek, J., Walters, C., Christensen, V., 2016. Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management. Ecological Modelling, Ecopath 30 years \u2013 Modelling ecosystem dynamics: beyond boundaries with EwE 331, 173\u2013184. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007\" id=\"return-footnote-555-1\" href=\"#footnote-555-1\" aria-label=\"Footnote 1\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[1]<\/sup><\/a> for the best practices in developing a balanced Ecopath model and Ainsworth and Walters <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Ainsworth, C.H., Walters, C.J., 2015. Ten common mistakes made in Ecopath with Ecosim modelling. Ecological Modelling 308: 14\u201317. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.03.019\" id=\"return-footnote-555-2\" href=\"#footnote-555-2\" aria-label=\"Footnote 2\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[2]<\/sup><\/a> for the most common mistakes to avoid when using EwE. After the Ecopath model is balanced, the best practice is to use the Ecosim temporal simulations and its calibration capabilities as the &#8216;go-to&#8217; calibration method prior to building an Ecospace model. This approach allows one to assess the capabilities of the model to represent past dynamics under past forcing conditions (hind-cast calibration) and assess the impact of the strength of the prey-predator interactions (or vulnerability parameters) prior to expanding to the more complex Ecospace module. This also helps provide an understanding for the main temporal drivers of the system and their impacts. The current and primary benefit of using Ecosim to calibrate the model is that calibration has yet to be included in Ecospace. There are more informal ways to &#8216;visually&#8217; calibrate the spatial model (see <a href=\"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/chapter\/spatial-model-skill-assessment\/\">Spatial Model Skill Assessment<\/a>), but there has yet to be a tool developed within the software to systematically calibrate an Ecospace model <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Steenbeek, J., Buszowski, J., Chagaris, D., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Fulton, E.A., Katsanevakis, S., Lewis, K.A., Mazaris, A.D., Macias, D., de Mutsert, K., Oldford, G., Pennino, M.G., Piroddi, C., Romagnoni, G., Serpetti, N., Shin, Y.-J., Spence, M.A., Stelzenm\u00fcller, V., 2021. Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better \u2013 A perspective. Environmental Modelling &amp; Software 145, 105209. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2021.105209\" id=\"return-footnote-555-3\" href=\"#footnote-555-3\" aria-label=\"Footnote 3\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[3]<\/sup><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Many recent examples show the implementation of the Ecosim module of EwE for calibration of time-dynamic models (e.g., <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Adebola, T., De Mutsert, K., 2019. Spatial simulation of redistribution of fishing effort in Nigerian coastal waters using Ecospace. Ecosphere 10, e02623. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ecs2.2623\" id=\"return-footnote-555-4\" href=\"#footnote-555-4\" aria-label=\"Footnote 4\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[4]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Bentley, J.W., Serpetti, N., Fox, C.J., Heymans, J.J., Reid, D.G., 2020. Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea. Fisheries Oceanography 29, 415\u2013435. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/fog.12486\" id=\"return-footnote-555-5\" href=\"#footnote-555-5\" aria-label=\"Footnote 5\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[5]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Christensen, V., 2013. Ecological Networks in Fisheries: Predicting the Future? Fisheries 38, 76\u201381. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/03632415.2013.757987\" id=\"return-footnote-555-6\" href=\"#footnote-555-6\" aria-label=\"Footnote 6\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[6]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Corrales, X., Coll, M., Ofir, E., Piroddi, C., Goren, M., Edelist, D., Heymans, J.J., Steenbeek, J., Christensen, V., Gal, G., 2017. Hindcasting the dynamics of an Eastern Mediterranean marine ecosystem under the impacts of multiple stressors. Marine Ecology Progress Series 580, 17\u201336. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3354\/meps12271\" id=\"return-footnote-555-7\" href=\"#footnote-555-7\" aria-label=\"Footnote 7\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[7]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"De Mutsert, K., Lewis, K.A., White, E.D., Buszowski, J., 2021. End-to-End Modeling Reveals Species-Specific Effects of Large-Scale Coastal Restoration on Living Resources Facing Climate Change. Front. Mar. Sci. 8. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2021.624532\" id=\"return-footnote-555-8\" href=\"#footnote-555-8\" aria-label=\"Footnote 8\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[8]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Hernvann, P.-Y., Gascuel, D., Gr\u00fcss, A., Druon, J.-N., Kopp, D., Perez, I., Piroddi, C., Robert, M., 2020. The Celtic Sea Through Time and Space: Ecosystem Modeling to Unravel Fishing and Climate Change Impacts on Food-Web Structure and Dynamics. Front. Mar. Sci. 7. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.578717\" id=\"return-footnote-555-9\" href=\"#footnote-555-9\" aria-label=\"Footnote 9\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[9]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Lewis, K.A., de Mutsert, K., Steenbeek, J., Peele, H., Cowan, J.H., Buszowski, J., 2016. Employing ecosystem models and geographic information systems (GIS) to investigate the response of changing marsh edge on historical biomass of estuarine nekton in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA. Ecological Modelling 331, 129\u2013141. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.017\" id=\"return-footnote-555-10\" href=\"#footnote-555-10\" aria-label=\"Footnote 10\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[10]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Mackinson, S., Daskalov, G., Heymans, J.J., Neira, S., Arancibia, H., Zetina-Rej\u00f3n, M., Jiang, H., Cheng, H.Q., Coll, M., Arreguin-Sanchez, F., Keeble, K., Shannon, L., 2009. Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Ecological Modelling, Selected Papers from the Sixth European Conference on Ecological Modelling - ECEM \u201907, on Challenges for ecological modelling in a changing world: Global Changes, Sustainability and Ecosystem Based Management, November 27-30, 2007, Trieste, Italy 220, 2972\u20132987. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2008.10.021\" id=\"return-footnote-555-11\" href=\"#footnote-555-11\" aria-label=\"Footnote 11\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[11]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Piroddi, C., Coll, M., Liquete, C., Macias, D., Greer, K., Buszowski, J., Steenbeek, J., Danovaro, R., Christensen, V., 2017. Historical changes of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem: modelling the role and impact of primary productivity and fisheries changes over time. Sci Rep 7, 44491. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep44491\" id=\"return-footnote-555-12\" href=\"#footnote-555-12\" aria-label=\"Footnote 12\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[12]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Serpetti, N., Baudron, A.R., Burrows, M.T., Payne, B.L., Helaou\u00ebt, P., Fernandes, P.G., Heymans, J.J., 2017. Impact of ocean warming on sustainable fisheries management informs the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. Sci Rep 7, 13438. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-017-13220-7\" id=\"return-footnote-555-13\" href=\"#footnote-555-13\" aria-label=\"Footnote 13\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[13]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Shannon, L.J., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Lamont, T., Winker, H., Crawford, R., Jarre, A., Coll, M., 2020. Exploring Temporal Variability in the Southern Benguela Ecosystem Over the Past Four Decades Using a Time-Dynamic Ecosystem Model. Front. Mar. Sci. 7, 540. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.00540\" id=\"return-footnote-555-14\" href=\"#footnote-555-14\" aria-label=\"Footnote 14\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[14]<\/sup><\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>The general method for calibration using the Fit to Time Series module in Ecosim and detailed methods using this tool have been well-documented <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Heymans, J.J., Coll, M., Link, J.S., Mackinson, S., Steenbeek, J., Walters, C., Christensen, V., 2016. Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management. Ecological Modelling, Ecopath 30 years \u2013 Modelling ecosystem dynamics: beyond boundaries with EwE 331, 173\u2013184. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007\" id=\"return-footnote-555-15\" href=\"#footnote-555-15\" aria-label=\"Footnote 15\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[15]<\/sup><\/a> <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Scott, E., Serpetti, N., Steenbeek, J., Heymans, J.J., 2016. A Stepwise Fitting Procedure for automated fitting of Ecopath with Ecosim models. SoftwareX 5, 25\u201330. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002\" id=\"return-footnote-555-16\" href=\"#footnote-555-16\" aria-label=\"Footnote 16\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[16]<\/sup><\/a>. However, when a traditional fit cannot be achieved due to lack of time series data, exploratory analyses to determine the uncertainty associated with changes in vulnerabilities is recommended (e.g., Rehren et al. <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Rehren, J., Coll, M., Jiddawi, N., Kluger, L., Omar, O., Christensen, V., Pennino, G.M., Wolff, M., 2022. Evaluating ecosystem impacts of gear regulations in a data-limited fishery using a temporal food web model. ICES Journal of Marine Science 79:1624-1636 https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/icesjms\/fsac077.\" id=\"return-footnote-555-17\" href=\"#footnote-555-17\" aria-label=\"Footnote 17\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[17]<\/sup><\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>The primary goal of fitting the Ecosim model to time series data is to evaluate if the model can reproduce historical patterns while refining key parameters, such as the vulnerabilities <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Ahrens, R.N.M., Walters, C.J., Christensen, V., 2012. Foraging arena theory. Fish and Fisheries 13, 41\u201359. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1467-2979.2011.00432.x\" id=\"return-footnote-555-18\" href=\"#footnote-555-18\" aria-label=\"Footnote 18\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[18]<\/sup><\/a>. Ecosim simulations are especially sensitive to the \u2018vulnerability\u2019 settings, which incorporates density-dependence by representing behavioral ecology responses by prey that can limit predation impacts and access to prey food resources, and expresses how far a group is from carrying capacity <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Christensen, V., Walters, C.J., 2004. Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling, Placing Fisheries in their Ecosystem Context 172, 109\u2013139. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2003.09.003\" id=\"return-footnote-555-19\" href=\"#footnote-555-19\" aria-label=\"Footnote 19\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[19]<\/sup><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Fitting a model to data is a process that usually involves an iterative approach, using long-term fisheries, biological, and environmental data together with vulnerability settings to evaluate which combination of data and vulnerabilities minimizes residuals relative to observations calculated during the fitting procedure. This calibration process also allow for evaluation of model sensitivity to forcing functions and vulnerability setting, and can provide a priori information on how the user should conduct a model sensitivity analysis (usually using the built-in Monte Carlo routine plugin).<\/p>\n<p>The data to incorporate into the calibration process cannot be predefined, and ultimately depends on data availability for the modelled ecosystem. A general rule of thumb is to have as long a reference period as possible to capture historical disturbance patterns and productivity shifts that may have occurred through both natural and anthropogenic fluctuations. Moreover, we can reflect data quality and error in the model fitting process. We can weigh the contributions made by different species to the goodness of fit term differently to reflect data quality. After defining what observational data to use for calibration, the sum of squared model deviations (SS) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values should be used to find the most parsimonious model configuration that captures the most variation of the historical period in consideration <a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Mackinson, S., 2014. Combined analyses reveal environmentally driven changes in the North Sea ecosystem and raise questions regarding what makes an ecosystem model\u2019s performance credible? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 71, 31\u201346. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1139\/cjfas-2013-0173\" id=\"return-footnote-555-20\" href=\"#footnote-555-20\" aria-label=\"Footnote 20\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[20]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0<a class=\"footnote\" title=\"Scott, E., Serpetti, N., Steenbeek, J., Heymans, J.J., 2016. A Stepwise Fitting Procedure for automated fitting of Ecopath with Ecosim models. SoftwareX 5, 25\u201330. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002\" id=\"return-footnote-555-21\" href=\"#footnote-555-21\" aria-label=\"Footnote 21\"><sup class=\"footnote\">[21]<\/sup><\/a>. Calibration in Ecosim is not required for running Ecospace, but if done, the model is more reliable and interpretable, and more likely to lead to temporal dynamics in Ecospace for most species and functional groups, which are similar to the underlying Ecosim model.<\/p>\n<h1 class=\"import-Normal\"><strong>Adaption<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p>The chapter is in part adapted, with permission,\u00a0 from:<\/p>\n<p>De Mutsert K, Marta Coll, Jeroen Steenbeek, Cameron Ainsworth, Joe Buszowski, David Chagaris, Villy Christensen, Sheila J.J. Heymans, Kristy A. Lewis, Simone Libralato, Greig Oldford, Chiara Piroddi, Giovanni Romagnoni, Natalia Serpetti, Michael Spence, Carl Walters. 2023. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/B978-0-323-90798-9.00035-4\">Advances in spatial-temporal coastal and marine ecosystem modeling using Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace<\/a>. Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, 2nd Edition. Elsevier.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"before-footnotes clear\" \/><div class=\"footnotes\"><ol><li id=\"footnote-555-1\">Heymans, J.J., Coll, M., Link, J.S., Mackinson, S., Steenbeek, J., Walters, C., Christensen, V., 2016. Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management. Ecological Modelling, Ecopath 30 years \u2013 Modelling ecosystem dynamics: beyond boundaries with EwE 331, 173\u2013184. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-1\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 1\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-2\">Ainsworth, C.H., Walters, C.J., 2015. Ten common mistakes made in Ecopath with Ecosim modelling. Ecological Modelling 308: 14\u201317. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.03.019\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.03.019<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-2\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 2\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-3\">Steenbeek, J., Buszowski, J., Chagaris, D., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Fulton, E.A., Katsanevakis, S., Lewis, K.A., Mazaris, A.D., Macias, D., de Mutsert, K., Oldford, G., Pennino, M.G., Piroddi, C., Romagnoni, G., Serpetti, N., Shin, Y.-J., Spence, M.A., Stelzenm\u00fcller, V., 2021. Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better \u2013 A perspective. Environmental Modelling &amp; Software 145, 105209. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2021.105209\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2021.105209<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-3\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 3\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-4\">Adebola, T., De Mutsert, K., 2019. Spatial simulation of redistribution of fishing effort in Nigerian coastal waters using Ecospace. Ecosphere 10, e02623. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ecs2.2623\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ecs2.2623<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-4\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 4\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-5\">Bentley, J.W., Serpetti, N., Fox, C.J., Heymans, J.J., Reid, D.G., 2020. Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea. Fisheries Oceanography 29, 415\u2013435. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/fog.12486\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/fog.12486<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-5\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 5\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-6\">Christensen, V., 2013. Ecological Networks in Fisheries: Predicting the Future? Fisheries 38, 76\u201381. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/03632415.2013.757987\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/03632415.2013.757987<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-6\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 6\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-7\">Corrales, X., Coll, M., Ofir, E., Piroddi, C., Goren, M., Edelist, D., Heymans, J.J., Steenbeek, J., Christensen, V., Gal, G., 2017. Hindcasting the dynamics of an Eastern Mediterranean marine ecosystem under the impacts of multiple stressors. Marine Ecology Progress Series 580, 17\u201336. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3354\/meps12271\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3354\/meps12271<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-7\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 7\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-8\">De Mutsert, K., Lewis, K.A., White, E.D., Buszowski, J., 2021. End-to-End Modeling Reveals Species-Specific Effects of Large-Scale Coastal Restoration on Living Resources Facing Climate Change. Front. Mar. Sci. 8. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2021.624532\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2021.624532<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-8\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 8\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-9\">Hernvann, P.-Y., Gascuel, D., Gr\u00fcss, A., Druon, J.-N., Kopp, D., Perez, I., Piroddi, C., Robert, M., 2020. The Celtic Sea Through Time and Space: Ecosystem Modeling to Unravel Fishing and Climate Change Impacts on Food-Web Structure and Dynamics. Front. Mar. Sci. 7. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.578717\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.578717<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-9\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 9\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-10\">Lewis, K.A., de Mutsert, K., Steenbeek, J., Peele, H., Cowan, J.H., Buszowski, J., 2016. Employing ecosystem models and geographic information systems (GIS) to investigate the response of changing marsh edge on historical biomass of estuarine nekton in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA. Ecological Modelling 331, 129\u2013141. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.017\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.017<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-10\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 10\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-11\">Mackinson, S., Daskalov, G., Heymans, J.J., Neira, S., Arancibia, H., Zetina-Rej\u00f3n, M., Jiang, H., Cheng, H.Q., Coll, M., Arreguin-Sanchez, F., Keeble, K., Shannon, L., 2009. Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Ecological Modelling, Selected Papers from the Sixth European Conference on Ecological Modelling - ECEM \u201907, on Challenges for ecological modelling in a changing world: Global Changes, Sustainability and Ecosystem Based Management, November 27-30, 2007, Trieste, Italy 220, 2972\u20132987. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2008.10.021\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2008.10.021<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-11\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 11\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-12\">Piroddi, C., Coll, M., Liquete, C., Macias, D., Greer, K., Buszowski, J., Steenbeek, J., Danovaro, R., Christensen, V., 2017. Historical changes of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem: modelling the role and impact of primary productivity and fisheries changes over time. Sci Rep 7, 44491. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep44491\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep44491<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-12\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 12\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-13\">Serpetti, N., Baudron, A.R., Burrows, M.T., Payne, B.L., Helaou\u00ebt, P., Fernandes, P.G., Heymans, J.J., 2017. Impact of ocean warming on sustainable fisheries management informs the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. Sci Rep 7, 13438. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-017-13220-7\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-017-13220-7<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-13\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 13\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-14\">Shannon, L.J., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Lamont, T., Winker, H., Crawford, R., Jarre, A., Coll, M., 2020. Exploring Temporal Variability in the Southern Benguela Ecosystem Over the Past Four Decades Using a Time-Dynamic Ecosystem Model. Front. Mar. Sci. 7, 540. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.00540\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fmars.2020.00540<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-14\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 14\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-15\">Heymans, J.J., Coll, M., Link, J.S., Mackinson, S., Steenbeek, J., Walters, C., Christensen, V., 2016. Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management. Ecological Modelling, Ecopath 30 years \u2013 Modelling ecosystem dynamics: beyond boundaries with EwE 331, 173\u2013184. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.007<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-15\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 15\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-16\">Scott, E., Serpetti, N., Steenbeek, J., Heymans, J.J., 2016. A Stepwise Fitting Procedure for automated fitting of Ecopath with Ecosim models. SoftwareX 5, 25\u201330. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-16\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 16\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-17\">Rehren, J., Coll, M., Jiddawi, N., Kluger, L., Omar, O., Christensen, V., Pennino, G.M., Wolff, M., 2022. Evaluating ecosystem impacts of gear regulations in a data-limited fishery using a temporal food web model. ICES Journal of Marine Science 79:1624-1636 <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/icesjms\/fsac077\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/icesjms\/fsac077<\/a>. <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-17\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 17\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-18\">Ahrens, R.N.M., Walters, C.J., Christensen, V., 2012. Foraging arena theory. Fish and Fisheries 13, 41\u201359. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1467-2979.2011.00432.x\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1467-2979.2011.00432.x<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-18\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 18\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-19\">Christensen, V., Walters, C.J., 2004. Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling, Placing Fisheries in their Ecosystem Context 172, 109\u2013139. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2003.09.003\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2003.09.003<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-19\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 19\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-20\">Mackinson, S., 2014. Combined analyses reveal environmentally driven changes in the North Sea ecosystem and raise questions regarding what makes an ecosystem model\u2019s performance credible? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 71, 31\u201346. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1139\/cjfas-2013-0173\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1139\/cjfas-2013-0173<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-20\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 20\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote-555-21\">Scott, E., Serpetti, N., Steenbeek, J., Heymans, J.J., 2016. A Stepwise Fitting Procedure for automated fitting of Ecopath with Ecosim models. SoftwareX 5, 25\u201330. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.softx.2016.02.002<\/a> <a href=\"#return-footnote-555-21\" class=\"return-footnote\" aria-label=\"Return to footnote 21\">&crarr;<\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1909,"menu_order":6,"template":"","meta":{"pb_show_title":"on","pb_short_title":"","pb_subtitle":"","pb_authors":[],"pb_section_license":""},"chapter-type":[],"contributor":[],"license":[],"class_list":["post-555","chapter","type-chapter","status-publish","hentry"],"part":495,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/chapter"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1909"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/555\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1738,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/555\/revisions\/1738"}],"part":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/parts\/495"}],"metadata":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/555\/metadata\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"chapter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapter-type?post=555"},{"taxonomy":"contributor","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributor?post=555"},{"taxonomy":"license","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/eweguide\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/license?post=555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}