{"id":192,"date":"2025-10-03T15:38:25","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T19:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/?post_type=chapter&#038;p=192"},"modified":"2026-05-26T13:30:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T17:30:00","slug":"causal-model","status":"publish","type":"chapter","link":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/chapter\/causal-model\/","title":{"raw":"6.3 The causal model","rendered":"6.3 The causal model"},"content":{"raw":"Each intervention is meant to address one problem or more. A first helpful step is to understand the role the intervention plays in solving the problem. For this step, building a causal model can be useful. A causal model represents the problem and its root causes that the intervention is meant to address (Renger &amp; Titcomb, 2002).\r\n\r\nBut first, what is a cause? The study of causes and causality has structured discussions for centuries (Shadish et al., 2002).\r\n<div>\r\n<blockquote>A cause is that which makes any other thing, either simple idea, substance or mode, begin to be; and an effect is that, which has its beginning from some other thing. (Locke, 1975, p. 325, cited in Shadish et al., 2002, p.4)<\/blockquote>\r\n<\/div>\r\nHowever, causes are not always of the same nature. Some elements, called causes, require specific conditions to produce effects. Shadish et al. provide the example of a match, which can be a cause of a forest fire, but for this to happen, specific conditions are needed, such as something to light the match, dry weather, etc. \u201cMany factors are usually required for an effect to occur, but we rarely know all of them and how they relate to each other\u201d (Shadish et al., 2002, p. 5). These causes are referred to as \"INUS conditions,\" which stands for \"an insufficient, but non-redundant part of an unnecessary but sufficient condition\" (Mackie, 1974, cited in Shadish et al., 2002, p.5).\r\n\r\nThe causal model should represent the factors involved in producing effects. Following Rengers and Titcomb\u2019s advice on building a causal model, the main question you should ask at this early stage about the intervention is \u201cwhy?\u201d (Renger &amp; Titcomb, 2002). Here are the steps to follow:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>The first step is to identify the problem(s) and state it clearly.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Then, you need to ask why this problem exists and document its causes. Scientific or expert knowledge are the best sources of information to inform this step.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>After identifying a cause (or causes), continue to ask \u201cwhy?\u201d it\u2019s happening to identify the determinants of the cause, as if peeling back the layers of an onion.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Continue to ask \u201cwhy?\u201d until it feels like recording root causes is no longer fruitful or when the topic is exhausted.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Repeat for each cause and their determinants.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nFigure 6.1 presents the start to building a causal model for a Community Based Primary Health Care research initiative that combined 12 different research programs (the intervention).\r\n\r\n<strong>Figure <\/strong><strong>6<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><strong>1<\/strong> <em>How to Build the Causal Model<\/em>\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_602\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"1024\"]<img class=\"wp-image-602 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1-1024x625.jpg\" alt=\"Flow diagram demonstrating a backward reasoning approach. It starts with the problem addressed by the intervention, then uses successive \u2018why\u2019 questions to trace back to the immediate causes and further to the determinants underlying those causes.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"625\" \/> Source: Brousselle, A. (2015). Research program logic models: Some reflections. Presentation at the Canadian Association for Health Services and Policy Research, Montreal.[\/caption]\r\n\r\nIdentification of the root causes of the targeted problem will inevitably offer a simplification of the problem and its underlying causes. For example, the obesity map (see Figure 6.2) developed by the UK Government\u2019s Foresight office (Butland et al., 2007) is a good illustration of the complexity of illness determinants at play. This mapped representation reveals the complexity of the causes of the problem more accurately than a linear representation\u2019s offering. However, when trying to understand the potential importance of the evaluated intervention and its role in addressing the root causes of a problem the mapped representation is probably less easy to work with. The evaluator needs to determine the right balance between finding a model that is sufficiently accurate and deep, and that meets the evaluation\u2019s practicability requirements, according to the use and role of such models in the evaluation.\r\n\r\n<strong>Figure <\/strong><strong>6<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><strong>2<\/strong> <em>The Obesity Map<\/em>\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_603\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"1350\"]<img class=\"wp-image-603 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1.png\" alt=\"Highly interconnected diagram illustrating multiple influences on energy balance. Factors shown include media, social, psychological, economic, food- and activity-related elements, infrastructure, developmental factors, and biological and medical contributors. Numerous arrows indicate positive or negative influence, with light to thick arrows representing increasing strength of impact. The dense network of arrows resembles a tangled \u2018spaghetti\u2019 of interacting factors.\" width=\"1350\" height=\"930\" \/> Source: Butland, B., Jebb, S., Kopelman, P., McPherson, K., Thomas, S., Mardell, J., &amp; Parry, V. (2007). Tackling obesities: future choices - project report (2nd edition), 90: https:\/\/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk\/media\/5a759da7e5274a4368298a4f\/07-1184x-tackling-obesities-future-choices-report.pdf[\/caption]\r\n\r\nOnce the causal model is developed, the evaluator can identify and highlight the causes and their determinants that are targeted by the intervention, as not all causes will be addressed by the intervention (see Figure 6.1\u2019s example, in blue).\r\n\r\nCausal models are of great importance in evaluations that focus on the relevance of the intervention and in effect analysis.","rendered":"<p>Each intervention is meant to address one problem or more. A first helpful step is to understand the role the intervention plays in solving the problem. For this step, building a causal model can be useful. A causal model represents the problem and its root causes that the intervention is meant to address (Renger &amp; Titcomb, 2002).<\/p>\n<p>But first, what is a cause? The study of causes and causality has structured discussions for centuries (Shadish et al., 2002).<\/p>\n<div>\n<blockquote><p>A cause is that which makes any other thing, either simple idea, substance or mode, begin to be; and an effect is that, which has its beginning from some other thing. (Locke, 1975, p. 325, cited in Shadish et al., 2002, p.4)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p>However, causes are not always of the same nature. Some elements, called causes, require specific conditions to produce effects. Shadish et al. provide the example of a match, which can be a cause of a forest fire, but for this to happen, specific conditions are needed, such as something to light the match, dry weather, etc. \u201cMany factors are usually required for an effect to occur, but we rarely know all of them and how they relate to each other\u201d (Shadish et al., 2002, p. 5). These causes are referred to as &#8220;INUS conditions,&#8221; which stands for &#8220;an insufficient, but non-redundant part of an unnecessary but sufficient condition&#8221; (Mackie, 1974, cited in Shadish et al., 2002, p.5).<\/p>\n<p>The causal model should represent the factors involved in producing effects. Following Rengers and Titcomb\u2019s advice on building a causal model, the main question you should ask at this early stage about the intervention is \u201cwhy?\u201d (Renger &amp; Titcomb, 2002). Here are the steps to follow:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The first step is to identify the problem(s) and state it clearly.<\/li>\n<li>Then, you need to ask why this problem exists and document its causes. Scientific or expert knowledge are the best sources of information to inform this step.<\/li>\n<li>After identifying a cause (or causes), continue to ask \u201cwhy?\u201d it\u2019s happening to identify the determinants of the cause, as if peeling back the layers of an onion.<\/li>\n<li>Continue to ask \u201cwhy?\u201d until it feels like recording root causes is no longer fruitful or when the topic is exhausted.<\/li>\n<li>Repeat for each cause and their determinants.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Figure 6.1 presents the start to building a causal model for a Community Based Primary Health Care research initiative that combined 12 different research programs (the intervention).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure <\/strong><strong>6<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><strong>1<\/strong> <em>How to Build the Causal Model<\/em><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_602\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-602\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-602 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1-1024x625.jpg\" alt=\"Flow diagram demonstrating a backward reasoning approach. It starts with the problem addressed by the intervention, then uses successive \u2018why\u2019 questions to trace back to the immediate causes and further to the determinants underlying those causes.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1-1024x625.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1-300x183.jpg 300w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1-768x469.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1-65x40.jpg 65w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1-225x137.jpg 225w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1-350x214.jpg 350w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-1.jpg 1350w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-602\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Brousselle, A. (2015). Research program logic models: Some reflections. Presentation at the Canadian Association for Health Services and Policy Research, Montreal.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Identification of the root causes of the targeted problem will inevitably offer a simplification of the problem and its underlying causes. For example, the obesity map (see Figure 6.2) developed by the UK Government\u2019s Foresight office (Butland et al., 2007) is a good illustration of the complexity of illness determinants at play. This mapped representation reveals the complexity of the causes of the problem more accurately than a linear representation\u2019s offering. However, when trying to understand the potential importance of the evaluated intervention and its role in addressing the root causes of a problem the mapped representation is probably less easy to work with. The evaluator needs to determine the right balance between finding a model that is sufficiently accurate and deep, and that meets the evaluation\u2019s practicability requirements, according to the use and role of such models in the evaluation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure <\/strong><strong>6<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><strong>2<\/strong> <em>The Obesity Map<\/em><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_603\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-603\" style=\"width: 1350px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-603 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1.png\" alt=\"Highly interconnected diagram illustrating multiple influences on energy balance. Factors shown include media, social, psychological, economic, food- and activity-related elements, infrastructure, developmental factors, and biological and medical contributors. Numerous arrows indicate positive or negative influence, with light to thick arrows representing increasing strength of impact. The dense network of arrows resembles a tangled \u2018spaghetti\u2019 of interacting factors.\" width=\"1350\" height=\"930\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1.png 1350w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1-1024x705.png 1024w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1-768x529.png 768w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1-65x45.png 65w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1-225x155.png 225w, https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2533\/2025\/10\/figure6-2-1-350x241.png 350w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1350px) 100vw, 1350px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-603\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Butland, B., Jebb, S., Kopelman, P., McPherson, K., Thomas, S., Mardell, J., &amp; Parry, V. (2007). Tackling obesities: future choices &#8211; project report (2nd edition), 90: https:\/\/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk\/media\/5a759da7e5274a4368298a4f\/07-1184x-tackling-obesities-future-choices-report.pdf<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Once the causal model is developed, the evaluator can identify and highlight the causes and their determinants that are targeted by the intervention, as not all causes will be addressed by the intervention (see Figure 6.1\u2019s example, in blue).<\/p>\n<p>Causal models are of great importance in evaluations that focus on the relevance of the intervention and in effect analysis.<\/p>\n<div class=\"media-attributions clear\" prefix:cc=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/ns#\" prefix:dc=\"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/\"><h2>Media Attributions<\/h2><ul><li >Figure 6.1 How to Build the Causal Model       <\/li><li >Figure 6.2 The Obesity Map       <\/li><\/ul><\/div>","protected":false},"author":20,"menu_order":3,"template":"","meta":{"pb_show_title":"on","pb_short_title":"","pb_subtitle":"","pb_authors":[],"pb_section_license":""},"chapter-type":[49],"contributor":[],"license":[],"class_list":["post-192","chapter","type-chapter","status-publish","hentry","chapter-type-numberless"],"part":186,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/chapter"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/192\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":631,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/192\/revisions\/631"}],"part":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/parts\/186"}],"metadata":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/192\/metadata\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"chapter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapter-type?post=192"},{"taxonomy":"contributor","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributor?post=192"},{"taxonomy":"license","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pressbooks.bccampus.ca\/foundationsofevaluation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/license?post=192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}