Normal Probability Distributions

Learning Objectives

Understand the shape, statistical properties and formulas for Normal Distributions.

Properties of Normal Distributions

A normal distribution is:

  • The most common type of distribution
  • It is continuous and has a “bell” shape.
  • It is ‘symmetric’ about the mean (µ) (see more in the ‘SYMMETRIC’ section)
  • The total area under the normal curve is 1.
  • Ie: the probability of being anywhere on the distribution=1.

Calculating Probabilities

It would require a calculate technique called Integration by Parts to calculate the probabilities by hand for the Normal Distribution. For this reason, we will only use Excel’s NORM.DIST() function to calculate probabilities:

  • [latex]P[/latex](at most or less than) =NORM.DIST([latex]x[/latex], µ, σ, TRUE)
  • [latex]P[/latex](at least or more than) =1−NORM.DIST([latex]x[/latex], µ, σ, TRUE)
  • Where µ (mu) is the mean of the distribution and σ (sigma) is the standard deviation.

Calculating X-Values

If we are looking to solve for the [latex]x[/latex]-value instead of the probability, this is called an ‘inverse‘ problem and we use Excel’s NORM.INV() function:

  • [latex]x[/latex] = NORM.INV(Area to left of [latex]x[/latex], µ, σ)
  • [latex]x[/latex] = NORM.INV(1− Area to right of [latex]x[/latex], µ, σ)

Z-Scores

A z-score is:

  • “A statistical measurement that describes a value’s relationship to the mean of a group of values.”
  • “Measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean.”
  • “A measure of an instrument’s variability and can be used by traders to help determine volatility.”

It can be calculated using a formula if the [latex]x[/latex]-value, µ (mu) and, σ (sigma) are given:
\[z = \frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}\]

It can be calculated using Excel’s NORM.S.INV function if the area/probability is given: \[ z = \text{NORM.S.INV}(\text{Area to left of z}) = \text{NORM.INV}(1-\text{Area to right of z})\]

Symmetric Property

  • It is symmetric (or identical) on either side of the mean.
  • The mean and median are equal.
  • The data in this distribution is neither skewed left nor skewed right.

Statistical Properties

The following metrics apply to Normal Distributions:

  • population mean = µ
  • sample mean = x̄
  • population standard deviation = σ
  • sample standard deviation = s
  • mode = µ or x̄ (depending if population or sample given)
  • variance = σ2 or s2 (depending if population or sample given)
  • symmetric (not skewed) and the skewness = 0

Video & Resources Explaining Normal Distributions

Additional Resources:

  • Click here to download the Powerpoint slides that accompany the video.
  • Click here to download the Excel solutions for the Normal Distribution section.

Key Takeaways (EXERCISE)

Key Takeaways: Normal Distributions

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An Introduction to Business Statistics for Analytics (1st Edition) Copyright © 2024 by Amy Goldlist; Charles Chan; Leslie Major; Michael Johnson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, except where otherwise noted.

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