Module 4: Risk Under Deep Uncertainty

Light-touch approaches

Though each of the methods described above require some amount of technical competency to implement, Watkiss and Cimato (2016) observe that many planners—without fully implementing these methods—use each approach to inform the way they approach decision-making under uncertainty. Watkiss and Cimato call this the “light touch approach”.

The table below provides a few examples of how each method can “lightly” be incorporated into thinking to improve decision-making.

Method

Light-touch approach

Real options
  • Consider “foothold” activities that open up potential to develop a new line of strategy in the future
  • Explicitly consider trade-offs between “all-in” strategies and strategies that preserve the capacity to make choices in the future
  • Use decision-tree structures to think through a dynamic decision-problem qualitatively
  • Trace out possible outcomes and decision points to assist in making dynamic choices
Adaptation Pathways
  • Identify near-term actions and future contingencies
  • Prioritize options on the basis of timing and phasing
  • Understand failure points (tipping points) and identify watchpoints that indicate failure points are nearing
Robust decision making
  • Apply “robustness” as a criterion for assessing options
  • Use expert judgment to stress-test strategies and identify the boundaries of underlying uncertainties that determine a strategy’s success or failure.
Adapted from U.K. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. (2020, November). Accounting for the effects of climate change: Supplementary green book guidance and Watkiss, P., & Cimato, F. (2016, May). The economics of adaptation and climate-resilient development: Lessons from projects for key adaptation challengesCentre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper, No. 265. 

 

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Financial Impact of Climate Change Copyright © 2021 by Todd Thexton is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, except where otherwise noted.

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