Activity: Predicting Damage and Loss

In this activity, you’ll be using climate projections obtained from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal to predict the corresponding changes in damage and loss values for one of four scenarios. Each scenario is drawn from one of the top 12 climate risks in Canada (Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential):

• Whitehorse Grocery (transportation disruption risk due to land subsidence caused by permafrost thaw)
• Pemberton Cabins (property loss due to wildfire)
• Clark Acres Farm (crop damage due to drought)
• Windsor Care Home (heatwave exacerbated by power outage)

You can also access the scenarios in the Appendix.

Here is your task:

1. Open the Climate Change Knowledge Portal, Climate Data – Projections for Canada.
2. From the Variables drop-down list, select the variable that corresponds to the climate driver in your scenario.
3. Drop a pin on the map at the location where your scenario takes place so that the database returns data for your specific location.
4. Create a table and record the mean value and the 90^th percentile value for each of the four date ranges and each of the four RCP scenarios.
5. Interpret the impact those projections would have on the organization’s costs of damages and loss.
6. Post your table and analysis to the Module 1 discussion forum.
7. Comment on the analyses provided by at least two others in the cohort.

Video attribution: “Orientation to the Climate Change Knowledge Portal database” by Todd Thexton, Financial Impact of Climate Change, Adaptation Learning Network is licensed under CC BY 4.0.