Module 3: Systemic Risks
Activity
Activity
In the activity for this module, we’ll be exploring how these systems-wide risks might affect a particular industry, sector or organization. For the purposes of this activity, please use the following scenario:
Imagine that it’s 2060. Until ten years prior, relatively little progress had been made toward reductions in fossil fuel dependency (SSP2). Global mean temperatures exceeded the 2o target around the year 2045. Throughout much of 2040’s, extreme weather events caused very high economic losses across many sectors and many countries. Images of human suffering and stories of business bankruptcies dominated the landing pages of online news outlets. Shortly after 2050, the governments of most medium and high-income countries joined in radical policy reforms, aimed at aggressively decarbonizing the economy. Measures include a $US(2020) carbon tax of over $900/t CO2, and widescale decommissioning of coal, oil and gas leases.
- Identify an industry, sector or organization to use as an example for this activity.
- Consider the probable impact of the scenario described above to the financial and government sectors, and to GDP, employment and incomes.
- If the system-level impacts you described in Step 2 were to materialize, what would be the likely consequences to the industry, sector, or organization you chose in Step 1.
- Post your forecasts and conclusions in the Discussion Forum for Module 3.
- Read and engage with examples posted by others.