5 Composite outcome: Was the primary outcome a combination of outcomes?

By combining several individual outcomes into a composite outcome a trial can increase its ability to detect a difference between groups. However, composite outcomes require careful interpretation of the individual components to avoid making erroneous conclusions.

Checklist Questions

Are the components of the composite outcome all of similar importance to patients?
Did the components occur with similar frequencies?
Are the point estimates of treatment effect (HR, OR, RR) similar between each component? Do the 95% CIs overlap? Are they sufficiently narrow?
Do the components share a similar underlying biological mechanism?

Clinical importance: Are the components of the composite outcome all of similar importance to patients?

E.g. #1 The primary outcome of DAPA-HF (McMurray JJV et al.), a trial comparing dapagliflozin vs. placebo in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF)was a composite of:

  • Hospitalization for heart failure (HF) resulting in intravenous therapy
  • Urgent HF visit resulting in intravenous therapy
  • Death from cardiovascular (CV) causes

These are all outcomes of significant importance to patients. 

E.g. #2 The primary outcome of CONDOR (Chan FKL et al.), a trial comparing celecoxib vs NSAID+PPI, was a composite of:

  • Gastrointestinal (GI) bleed
  • GI obstruction
  • GI perforation
  • Clinically significant anemia (decrease in hemoglobin  ≥ 20 g/L or decrease in hematocrit ≥10%)

The latter of which was notably less important than the other components.

Statistical contribution: Did the component outcomes occur with similar frequencies? 

E.g. #1 Components of the primary outcome in DAPA-HF (McMurray JJV et al.) and their rates for dapagliflozin vs. placebo:

  • Hospitalization or urgent visit for HF (10% vs. 14%)
  • Death from CV causes (10% vs. 12%) 

The most important endpoint (death from CV causes) occurred only slightly less frequently than the other component.

E.g. #2 Components of the primary outcome in CONDOR (Chan FKL et al.) and their rates for celecoxib vs NSAID+PPI: 

  • GI bleed (0.2% vs. 0.2%)
  • GI obstruction (0% for both groups)
  • GI perforation (0% for both groups)
  • Clinically significant anemia (0.7% vs. 3%)

The greatest contributor of events (clinically significant anemia) drove the difference between groups was also the least clinically important.

Consistency in effect of therapy: Are the point estimates of treatment effect between each component consistent? Do the 95% CIs overlap? Are they sufficiently narrow?

E.g. #1 HRs in DAPA-HF (McMurray JJV et al.) for dapagliflozin vs. placebo:

  • Composite HR = 0.74 (95% CI 0.65-0.85)
  • Hospitalization or urgent visit for heart failure HR = 0.70 (95% CI 0.59-0.83)
  • Cardiovascular death HR = 0.82 (95% CI 0.69-0.98)

Since all the CIs overlap and are sufficiently narrow, there can be greater confidence that the composite outcome is not misleading.

E.g. #2 Relative risk reductions (RRRs) in CONDOR (Chan FKL et al.) for celecoxib vs NSAID+PPI:

Since there is a very large difference in the point estimates, it is better to consider the individual endpoints rather than the composite endpoint.

Biologic rationale: Do the components of the composite outcome share a similar underlying biological mechanism? 

E.g. #1 In DAPA-HF (McMurray JJV et al.) for dapagliflozin vs. placebo all outcomes had a similar underlying mechanism, consisting of (i) hospitalization or urgent visit for heart failure and (ii) cardiovascular death.
E.g. #2 In CONDOR (Chan FKL et al.) for celecoxib vs NSAID+PPI all outcomes also had a similar underlying mechanism, consisting of (i) GI bleed, (ii) GI obstruction, (iii) GI perforation, and (iv) clinically significant anemia. Despite this coherence in underlying mechanism the composite outcome was inadequately chosen, for reasons discussed above.
E.g. #3 In the UKPDS blood pressure target trial (UK Prospective Diabetes Study Group), the primary outcome was a composite of 21 outcomes including those resulting from vascular damage (e.g. stroke, renal failure), malignancy, and extremes in plasma glucose. Only the vascular events have a biological rationale for being reduced by improved blood pressure control. As such, it is advisable to assess each of these outcomes individually rather than as a composite.
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